Measuring the Effects of Population Control on Economic Development: A Case Study of Pakistan

The terms of reference of this report are to indicate the “impact of alternative foreseeable population trends upon economic development prospects and assistance needs of less developed countries”. In it we consider the effects of varying the rate of natural increase of population on a “less developed” country’s efforts to improve its general economic well being. Pakistan, for the period 1965-85, is the specific case examined. In the context of Pakistan’s development constraints and plans, we have attempted to measure what difference it would make in prospects for progress if mortality and/or fertility rates were changed. The demographic contingencies to be considered include i) a progressive reduction of mortality through improved environmental, medical, and nutritional conditions; and if) a progressive reduction in fertility through government sponsored family-planning efforts. There are obviously many aspects of the development process that depend upon how population is growing. We have focussed on evaluating the population impact in terms of selected characteristics of the national economy including aggregate and per capita income, savings, and consumption, the composition of output and employment by major productive sectors, and the degree of de¬pendence on import of capital.