A Policy Model of the Wheat and Rice Economy of Pakistan

Consumption of wheat and rice in Pakistan grows vigorously. The causes are well-known: (i) population growth, officially estimated at about three percent per year, is very high and, (ii) at low levels of income per head the income elasticities of wheat and rice consumption are still positive~ Clearly, in order to achieve or maintain self-sufficiency in wheat and rice, domestic production of these products has to increase, at least at the same pace as consumption. When viewing the production performance of recent years in this light there is reason for satisfaction. Volumes of wheat imports, expressed as a percentage of domestic production, have tended to fall over the past ten to fifteen years, while rice exports have increased to, and then stabilized around, a level of one million tons per year.