A Model for Forecasting Wheat Production in the Punjab

The purpose of the study is to explore the possibility of developing an econometric model which would help in explaining and predicting changes in wheat production in the Punjab. Wheat is a major crop in the province occupying nearly 40 per cent of the total cultivated area and about 2/3 of the area under Rabi crops. It is by far the most important food crop providing nearly 2/3 of the total calorie intake. Accurate forecasting of wheat production is critical for planning process. Wheat production in the province increased from 27.2 lakh tons in 1949-50 to 56 lakh tons in 1972-73 or 106 per cent. The increase in production was achieved largely by the increase in wheat area which rose from 59.1 lakh acres in 1949-50 to 107.9 lakh acres in 1972-73 or nearly 83 per cent. About 80 per cent of the wheat acreage is irrigated and only 20 per cent is grown in the Barani land. The yield per acre which was 12.38 maunds in 1949-50 declined to only 9.17 maunds in 1959-60 but increased sharply to 14.14 maund in 1972-73.