Rainfall, Acreage and Wheat Production in West Pakistan: A Statistical Analysis

Reliable knowledge about the factors causing variability in agricultural production is indispensable in the process of planning for economic development in Pakistan. This holds particularly for the major foodgrains, wheat and rice, which account for at least 40 per cent of gross national product. If we can determine the extent to which factors beyond our control (e.g., weather) cause year-to-year fluctuations in output, we should be able to estimate more accurately the increases in output attributable to our own development efforts (e.g.,increased use of fertilizers, pest-control measures, etc.). In the case of wheat production in West Pakistan, our immediate concern is to study factors that determine acreage and production in any cropping season. With reliable indicators of the probable wheat production earlier than the month of September when official estimates are made available, government policy measures with respect to foodgrain import and storage could be taken to ensure a more stable domestic supply and price level.