Growth and Structural Change in Pakistan Manufacturing Industry, 1954-1964

It has been evident for some time that Pakistan has enjoyed a rate of growth of its large-scale manufacturing sector that is indeed enviable. Some efforts have been made to study and understand this process both in terms of aggregate growth [20] and with reference to specific industries and policies [6]. In addition, a point of view has grown up in unofficial [21] and in official circles [16; 17; 18], that due to tariff and licensing policies, growth in manufacturing industry in Pakistan has proceeded via import substitution in light, consumer goods industries, that the possibilities for further growth in these directions are now extremely limited, that the export markets for such goods are small (due to a variety of reasons) and that future growth must take place via import substitution in intermediate goods and primarily in capital goods industries. As yet, little empirical work has been done to examine the various parts of this point of view. The purposes of the present paper are twofold. First, we have made a few simple improvements in the data on industrial growth and have collected such data as are available on production, imports, and exports of manufactured goods at a somewhat disaggregated level. Second, we have made some simple analysis of the patterns of manufacturing growth and discussed a few relationships that seem to have influenced the direction of industrial expansion over the past decade. In the latter part of the paper, we have reexamined the generally accepted point of view about industrial growth.